SANTA CRUZ, Calif. (AP) Whoever emerges as governor of
California will have a tough time fulfilling campaign promises. The
state faces an $8 billion deficit, persistent unemployment,
struggling schools, and, as Gov. Gray Davis knows all too well,
angry and mobilized voters.
``I guess it's fun during the campaign, but it's going to be a
grind once they get in there. It's a miserable job that everyone
wants,'' said Bob Stern, who heads the nonpartisan Center for
Governmental Studies in Santa Monica.
The state has been hit hard by the downturn in the economy and
the burst of the high-tech bubble in particular. A total of 223,900
jobs were lost from 2001 to 2003, causing a precipitous drop in
personal income tax and sales tax revenue the main sources of
income for the California's $71 billion budget.
The result has been cutbacks and higher fees for such things as
health care and education. Teachers are being laid off, classrooms
are overflowing, and clinics for the poor are being shuttered.
Any budgetary solutions to these problems will need two-thirds
approval from a state legislature that is more polarized than ever
after the wrenching recall campaign.
Moreover, there is only so much room in the budget for creative
problem-solving, since a series of voter-approved ``lockboxes''
mandate how money must be spent in certain areas, and the 1978 tax
revolt known as Proposition 13 limits property tax increases to 2
percent a year.
``The overarching problem is structural, and that's a really
tough challenge that won't be fixed by anyone who sits in the
governor's office,'' said Jean Ross, executive director of the
California Budget Project in Sacramento. ``At some point we're
going to have to reform the way in which we craft budgets in this
state, and that's going to be painful.''
The leading contenders for the job face their own unique
challenges as well.
Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, the front-runner in the race
to replace Davis, has seen his image and his mandate to clean up
Sacramento tarnished by accusations that he groped and sexually
harassed 15 women.
Schwarzenegger has apologized and denounced some of the
accusations as dirty politics, but he probably will not escape the
controversy if he is elected governor.
Attorney General Bill Lockyer, a Democrat, said Schwarzenegger
should volunteer for a state investigation regardless of the
outcome of the election, although the one-year statute of
limitations for sexual battery has expired on all the complaints.
And Democratic Assemblyman Mark Leno said he would introduce
legislation he dubbed ``Arnold's Law'' to increase the penalties
for sexually harassing women in the workplace.
``I don't think these sex harassment allegations are going away.
He's going to keep being flayed by them. Maybe they're like
mosquito pricks, but they're still there,'' said Edward Lascher, a
public policy professor at Sacramento State University.
Schwarzenegger has said his top priority is to roll back a
recent tripling of the vehicle registration tax. That alone would
increase the budget deficit by $4 billion. His solution to tax
Indian casinos would involve re-negotiating compacts with 61
tribes a difficult task that will not be helped by
Schwarzenegger's campaign advertisements criticizing Indian
gambling. He also wants to renegotiate contracts with the state
employees' unions.
If Schwarzenegger wins, he will also be confronted with an
overwhelming Democratic majority in the Legislature and a
considerable amount of ill will toward him. In addition, he will
have only about two months to set up his administration before a
budget is due in January.
If Davis survives the recall, he can expect minimal GOP
cooperation and a continuation of all the problems stemming from
the budget crisis that led to the recall campaign just a year into
his second term.
``What they all have to hope for is a turnaround in the economy
which will kind of buy their way out of the current crisis,'' said
Walt Stone, chairman of political science at the University of
California at Davis.
California's economy has begun to show some signs of recovery,
including higher-than-expected bond sales and a growing number of
new businesses. This year's turnaround in the stock market has also
boosted the value of stock options for thousands of Silicon Valley
workers.
Still, when it comes to fixing the budget, ``all of the easy
things have already been done,'' said Democratic Assemblyman John
Laird. ``I just don't think any of these candidates understand how
bad it is, and how hard it will be to solve the problems.''
(Copyright 2003 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)